Chinese scientists predict that the international

Chinese scientists predict that the international oil price will hover at a high level in 2006

a Chinese prediction scientist said in Beijing on the 16th that the good development momentum of the world economy and the supply-demand relationship of oil determine the basic situation of high oil prices; However, if there is no worldwide emergency, the subsequent rise of oil prices is insufficient, and the oil price can only hover at a high level

Fan Ying, an associate researcher at the Institute of science and technology policy and management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, made the above judgment on the situation of the international oil market in 2006 on the basis of studying the fluctuation of the international crude oil price in 2005 and based on the independently developed oil price prediction model. Their research results were published in the latest prediction research report of the prediction science research center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences

Fan Ying said in an interview with Xinhua news agency, "in the next year, the international oil price is still high, and there will be a certain rise during the peak period of oil consumption. The Iranian nuclear crisis and the speculation of speculative funds are the biggest uncertainties in the trend of oil prices."

their research report provides a detailed forecast of the trend of oil prices: in March, the cold season in the northern hemisphere will gradually end according to the current domestic caustic soda and PVC production capacity and apparent consumption, and the oil price will fall slightly below $60 per barrel. However, as the Iranian nuclear crisis continues, the oil price will remain above $60 per barrel until May. Similar to previous years, the summer oil peak in August and the demand for heating oil in winter at the end of the year in the United States will bring oil prices to a new high. However, without the impact of emergencies, the oil price should not exceed $68 per barrel. In other off-season oil consumption, oil prices may fall briefly

researchers believe that in the case of further escalation of geographical conflicts, the world oil market will be severely affected. Coupled with speculators' expectations of the consequences of the conflict, oil prices will rise rapidly, reaching a peak near the peak of the conflict, close to $76 a barrel. As the conflict subsides, the oil price will fall, but due to the aftermath of the conflict, it will still deviate from the normal price, reaching about $65 a barrel

Fan Ying said: "Our adjustment of the benchmark forecast is based on the average duration of the previous Gulf wars, 66 weeks, and the deviation from the average price of residential interior partition light slats. The actual situation may be more complex. For example, with the delay of conflict expectations, the peak of oil prices will also fall back. Some of them are common failures encountered in the use of impact testing machines: the passage of items that must be used once for health purposes; different levels of conflict will lead to This will lead to different increases in oil prices. "

this project on oil price prediction has been supported by the national fund for Distinguished Young Scholars and the National Natural Science Foundation of China

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