Photovoltaic has not yet reached the recovery period, and strategic investment opportunities are coming.
in January this year, nancysinger, a spokesman, said in an email that on the 21st, March 26th and April 26th, Fulai investment under Zheng Jianming purchased 1700, 1200 and 25million newly issued common shares of Savills, with a total amount of $72.22 million. In this regard, several different writers who have paid attention to photovoltaic recently: does the slight rise in the price of photovoltaic products during the three investment and peacekeeping period of Fulai investment mean that the photovoltaic industry is at the time of recovery? The author's answer is: the recovery period of the photovoltaic industry has not yet arrived, and strategic investment opportunities are coming
in economics, the economic development cycle is divided into four stages: recession, depression, recovery and upsurge. If this concept is applied, the author believes that the reason why the recovery period of the photovoltaic industry has not yet reached is that at present, the global photovoltaic module capacity has been reduced from 70gw to 60GW, and the demand has increased from 27.5gw in 2011 to 30GW in 2012. This year, it should be about 35gw, which is still nearly double the supply demand. And for some time in the future, on the one hand, there is no sign of large-scale bankruptcy of China's uncompetitive enterprises, and even they will struggle for a period of time; On the other hand, the average annual growth rate of the global market is basically stable at about 20%, so the adjustment of supply and demand will be a slow process. The author has always believed that the industrial integration from 2011 should not be less than four years. At the same time, the integration period is divided into two stages: the stage of irrational price dispute is the stage of leading the price by reducing production capacity and clearing inventory. At this time, the operating results of competitive enterprises are negative, and the losses increase while the sales expand; The stage of rational price competition is a stage in which the brand, scale and technology lead the price. At this time, the operating results of competitive enterprises begin to appear positive, and uncompetitive enterprises accelerate their withdrawal from the market. Accordingly, the current photovoltaic industry is in the depression of the development cycle. This rise in product prices is only a phased rise, and it should be reduced, because the relationship between supply and demand is far from reasonable. The arrival of the industrial recovery period is marked by the positive business results of batch competitive enterprises
among the many factors that affect the investment in the photovoltaic industry, the encouragement of national policies, the expectations of local governments, and the shouting of industry insiders are normal things. However, because they are all in the industry, it is inevitable to lose calm or fairness, so the author pays more attention to the views of capital market investors on the photovoltaic industry. In this regard, the author's suggestion is: for financial investors, because the industry is still in the period of brutal integration, the winner can only see the clues, not daring to draw a conclusion, so the risk of investing in photovoltaic in the domestic secondary market is obvious; For strategic investors, the uncertainty of the development of competitive enterprises is decreasing, and the time of concern is coming
as a strategic investor in the photovoltaic industry, it is not difficult to notice the changes that are taking place in the industry. Market: the domestic market has expanded rapidly, and the goal of the 12th Five Year Plan for photovoltaic construction has been raised from 5GW to 35gw. Under the haze of "double anti" in the international market, China's export volume is still slightly increasing this month; Price: it is already below the cost line, and the survival and development of enterprises depend entirely on the size of financing capacity; In terms of international industrial market: the phenomenon of large-scale bankruptcy of module enterprises in overseas mature markets has been reduced, and the entry and exit of large enterprises to photovoltaic production are the same as 8. Result comparison: multiple experimental characteristic curves can be superimposed, reproduced, amplified and displayed in different colors, and the analysis and comparison of a group of samples; The news of Buffett's Sino US energy acquisition of Suntech in the early stage is noteworthy. However, the global capital invested in the photovoltaic market in 2012 is still limited, and the decline needs to be studied; Target enterprises: competitive enterprises are operating at full capacity, even expanding production capacity, and the concentration of sales market share is getting higher and higher. These enterprises have announced that they will become regular in the medium-term performance of this year. The author believes that the possibility of becoming regular at the end of this year and the beginning of next year exists, putting aside the water of boasting; In terms of investment cost, the target enterprise has reached a price range worthy of attention on the premise of controlling debt risk. For example, on April 17, Saiwei announced that the assets of Hefei Saiwei will eventually belong to Hefei high tech industrial social development service company, with a transaction price of 120million yuan. It is expected that this transaction will generate a net loss of 80million-90million dollars. The price per share sold by Saiwei to Fulai investment also fell from $1.83 to $1.03 within three months, with a remarkable range
the prophet of Chunjiang water heating duck must understand that industry overview is the basic knowledge of capital market investors, and knowing when to strategically invest in an industry must be the basic lesson of capital market investors. According to the news above, Zheng Jianming has a long history of investment in the capital market. He invested in real estate in Hainan and Shanghai in the early stage. In 2002, he took down the sample of Hong Kong real estate speculation at this time in Hong Kong, and later invested 360million shares in Gome, becoming the second largest shareholder. At the end of November 2012, it acquired 465.5 million shares of Shunfeng optoelectronics, became a leading major shareholder and began to enter the photovoltaic industry. On January 2 this year, Shanghai Qianjiang industry, controlled by Zheng Jianming, offered a price of 25million yuan. After the acquisition of all the equity of Savills Hefei failed, it continued to carry out equity investment in Savills LDK through Fulai investment. Like Amway 1, which has always been an invisible "champion", Zheng Jianming's measures are worth thinking about by strategic investors in the photovoltaic industry in the face of the brutal integration of the photovoltaic industry, as well as in the face of Savills, which is in turmoil. Zhonghua glass () Department