The hottest period is now combined to hold up an u

2022-10-12
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Since the beginning of this year, in the context of supply side reform, domestic electrolytic aluminum prices have increased significantly. At present, the price of electrolytic aluminum is more than 16000 yuan/ton. With the rise of prices, some aluminum enterprises began to have a "fear of heights" mentality, and their willingness to participate in hedging in the futures market gradually increased. Last week, the Institute and the medium-term Association jointly held the fourth training base activity of non-ferrous metal (aluminum) industry in 2017 and the current business training course of the medium-term Association. The students of futures and training courses visited electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Xinjiang

from September 19 to 22, the last phase Institute and the medium term association jointly held the fourth phase of 2017 non-ferrous metal (aluminum) industry training base activity and the current combined business training course of the medium term association. More than 40 students from futures companies went deep into electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Xinjiang to visit and study, deepen the relationship between the futures market and real enterprises, and promote the futures market to better serve the real economy

high price and high inventory coexist in Aluminum City

since this year, affected by transportation reform, supply side reform and environmental protection production restriction policies, the prices of coal, carbon, alumina, natural gas, petroleum coke and other commodities have continued to rise, while power costs and transportation costs remain high, especially in the carbon anode industry. Under the pressure of environmental protection production restriction, the supply scale has shrunk significantly, making the market price record high repeatedly. These factors lead to the rising production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum

in the process of visiting entity enterprises, futures learned that due to different regional distribution and obvious differences in power costs, the production costs of electrolytic aluminum enterprises are also significantly different. It is understood that the four aluminum plants under Shenhuo Group have a total capacity of 1.7 million tons, including 520000 tons in Yongcheng, 240000 tons in Shangqiu, 140000 tons in Qinyang and 800000 tons in Xinjiang. At present, the operating capacity is 1.13 million tons, including 330000 tons of Yongcheng aluminum plant and 800000 tons of Xinjiang aluminum plant. The capacity of branches in other regions is suspended due to high operating costs (especially high power costs)

industry insiders explained that due to the constraints of resources, energy and environmental capacity, the proportion of aluminum production in the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Bohai rim regions with developed traditional aluminum processing has decreased continuously in recent years. At present, relying on the energy cost advantage and policy support of the western region, 80% of the new capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry is concentrated in the northwest region, and the aluminum industry as a whole is transferred to the northwest

according to the survey, the domestic aluminum market is still in a pattern of excess supply and demand. According to statistics, domestic aluminum ingot inventory continued to rise this year, from the lowest point of more than 200000 tons to more than 1.5 million tons at the end of August, a record high. As for the situation of high price and high inventory, market analysts believe that although the aluminum market is in a pattern of excess supply and demand, the market has adapted to the high inventory. Although inventory has an impact on prices, it is difficult to play a leading role, and policy expectations still determine the price trend to a large extent

as electrolytic aluminum has become the focus of supply side reform this year, under the strong influence of market policy expectations, aluminum prices have been operating at a high level. The strong momentum of aluminum prices has also benefited the aluminum industry chain generally, and the business conditions of enterprises have improved. According to the statistics of Antaike, in August 2017, the average profit of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was about 2770 yuan/ton, the highest level in recent years

this year, the aluminum market is mainly affected by supply side reform and environmental protection policies. In April, 2017, the special action plan for the project of cleaning up and rectifying the violations in the electrolytic aluminum industry, which is an ideal material for drug transport carriers and tissue regeneration scaffolds (low strength), required that the special action of cleaning up and rectifying should be completed within 6 months. At the same time as how to develop the material testing machine, the environmental protection and production restriction policy in the heating season has been announced one after another. Industry insiders believe that this has curbed the blind expansion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and it is difficult to reproduce the situation of substantial overcapacity in the future, and the industry is gradually entering a state of balance

the person in charge of a domestic aluminum enterprise said that the impact of the policies being promoted on the electrolytic aluminum production capacity pattern will gradually be reflected in the second half of the year, and the overcapacity pattern will be significantly alleviated in the second half of the year, and it is expected to reach a balance in the middle of 2018

relevant analysts of Antaike said that affected by the supply side reform, the relationship between supply and demand in the electrolytic aluminum market has been fundamentally reversed and improved. This year, the aluminum spot market is very popular, and market participants are more willing to enter the aluminum market in the form of spot or futures. So far, the total position of Shanghai aluminum has reached 85.1 billion yuan, up 96% from the beginning of the year. The position of main contracts once exceeded 1million hands, a record high

According to the statistics of the previous period, from January to July this year, the aluminum futures market operated stably and transactions were active, with a total of 28.75 million transactions (unilateral statistics, the same below), and the transaction amount was 2004.8 billion yuan, an increase of 20.99% and 43.10% year-on-year respectively. The average daily position of aluminum futures increased as a whole. From January to July, the average daily position of the main contracts of aluminum futures of the previous period was 265700, an increase of 15.4% year-on-year. In the first seven months of this year, a total of 60200 tons were delivered, with a delivery amount of 8.382 billion yuan, continuing to maintain a stable situation

it is worth noting that the correlation between the main contracts of aluminum futures in the previous period and the spot price of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals (SMM) aluminum is 96.23%, and the spot price remains highly consistent; The convergence index of the current price fluctuation ratio is 0.03, which is at a more reasonable level; The current price difference of maturity period is 0.57%, indicating that the maturity convergence of current price is good. This is conducive to physical enterprises to create a new market delivery for U.S. corn producers through hedging, avoid spot price risks, and improve operating efficiency

the relevant person in charge of an aluminum enterprise told futures that this year, affected by policies, aluminum prices fluctuated greatly. The futures market can play the function of price discovery. The trend of futures fully reflects market changes and market expectations, and can provide information guidance for production and operation arrangements. For example, this year, affected by the policies related to electrolytic aluminum, aluminum prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the general trend is oscillatory rise. Enterprises can organize and arrange production and sales according to the trend changes. Compliance capacity can speed up the resumption of production and production, grasp the pace and opportunity of shipment, and sell less at low prices and more at high prices

at the same time, entity enterprises can also carry out product delivery and sales through the futures market, and choose the opportunity to obtain the income of the future cash price difference. The above person in charge said that the general trend of the aluminum market this year is to oscillate and rise, so it is not conducive to a large number of sales hedging in advance. Based on this judgment, the company only carries out futures and spot arbitrage and Hedging on the recent spot, that is, when the futures price is much higher than the spot price in the current month, it carries out partial hedging delivery and sales. In the end, the company took advantage of the delivery brand advantage to obtain the income of the price difference between the futures and the cash. At the time of transaction, the price per ton was about 200 yuan higher than the spot price in the same period, and the company increased its income by more than 12 million yuan through the futures market

in addition, he believes that downstream enterprises (such as the cable industry) that bid and price in advance can seize the favorable opportunity to hedge the purchase of aluminum ingots according to the market trend this year, so as to avoid the risk of price rise

"before and after the Spring Festival is the off-season for aluminum ingot consumption. At this time, the downstream enterprises are on holiday, but the upstream production enterprises will not stop production. The asynchronous production of the upstream and downstream industries will lead to periodic excess of products, and the difference between the futures and spot prices is large. At this time, we will hedge in the futures market, and finally sell aluminum ingots by delivery." He added

in addition to opening an account and hedging for delivery, upstream production enterprises can also choose the point price hedging sales mode, and use the futures market to lock the selling price in advance at a relatively high level and deliver on schedule. At present, some domestic traders with good credit and strong strength also allow aluminum factories to directly determine the price according to the point price of futures contracts

referring to the experience of production enterprises in directly using the futures market hedging operation, the person in charge believed that, first, we should pay attention to the opportunity. It is best to operate when the futures price is higher than the production cost of the enterprise and the enterprise is profitable. In this way, the enterprise not only has relatively small pressure, but also can basically lock in stable profits; Second, we should pay attention to the operation methods. We should not only lock the price of aluminum ingots in advance, but also lock the main raw material costs that are easy to change, so as to lock in profits more effectively

he told that in 2004, the company plans to put into production more than 100000 tons of electrolytic aluminum project, of which raw materials such as alumina have been purchased, and the cost is basically locked. Before the project was launched, the aluminum price was at a relatively high level, and at this time, there was a profit of about 1000 yuan per ton. By correctly analyzing the market trend, the company hedged 50000 tons of aluminum ingots in the futures market in advance to avoid the risk of future price decline. After the aluminum ingots left the factory in the later stage, the price fell as expected, and the company gained considerable profits from this operation

establish a perfect futures hedging system

during the visit, we learned that the spot enterprises currently hedging in the futures market will form a complete set of hedging system and risk control measures, and improve the risk management plan

according to the person in charge of an aluminum enterprise, the enterprise has a perfect futures hedging management system. First, the hedging plan should be submitted to the relevant leaders for approval before each specific operation. Second, the company has set up a special institution for futures hedging trading, and the members of the futures operation leading group and the specific operation implementation group have a clear division of labor in the specific implementation. Third, in futures hedging transactions, the operation shall be carried out in strict accordance with the approved plan. In principle, the hedging period shall not exceed three months, and the amount of hedging shall be the amount of foam granulator applied for in the new period, which shall not exceed 20% of the output during this period. Fourth, the fund risk control and position operation are managed by departments. The fund risk control is mainly under the finance department and enterprise management department, and the position operation is mainly under the business department. Fifth, in order to ensure that the company's futures and spot departments are not disconnected, a special information research and development department and an unimpeded communication and coordination mechanism should be established. In case of major decisions and emergencies, coordination meetings can be held at any time to study and solve them. Sixth, when the hedging position is large, the operational position is dispersed to different futures companies

he believes that entity enterprises should have a sense of risk control when participating in futures, mainly by hedging in combination with their own operating conditions, and should prepare sufficient margin for the hedging position, including the additional margin required to maintain the position after floating losses. At the same time, after the position is established, keep the spot and prepare for delivery. Futures is a tool to avoid the risk of sharp price fluctuations. Don't have speculation. In addition, we should pay attention to grasp the general trend of the market, and it is best to operate when the product has a certain hedging profit

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